10 June 2021, 14:25
Minister of National Economy Aset Irgaliyev, Chair of the National Bank Erbolat Dossaev, Minister of Finance Yerulan Zhamaubayev reported on economic development, monetary policy, execution of the republican budget, local content in public procurement, Minister of Trade and Integration Bakhyt Sultanov spoke on the prices for socially significant food products, Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development Beibut Atamkulov and Minister of Energy Nurlan Nogayev reported on development of industry and energy sector, Minister of Agriculture Saparkhan Omarov reported on the development of the agro-industrial complex.
So, according to the head of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Asset Irgaliev, in May of this year. the improvement of business activity in the country continued. In January-May of this year the rate of economic recovery growth accelerated to 1.6%.
The real sector remains the main driver of economic growth. The service sector continues to revive. High investment activity remains in the non-extractive sectors of the economy.
“In the reporting period of this year. excluding the mining industry, growth in the real sector was 7.4%. Against the background of stabilization of domestic demand, the growth of the service sector accelerated to 0.8%,” he said.
Among the sectors of the economy, information and communications, construction, water supply, manufacturing, electricity and agriculture showed high growth.
There is a dynamic growth in the manufacturing industries.
Mechanical engineering excelled in double-digit growth with an increase of 21.1%, incl. automotive industry — by 26.4%, production of locomotives and cars — by 54.9%, pharmaceuticals — by 25.7%, production of building materials — by 21.4%, clothing — by 19.3%, furniture — by 18, 2% and plastic products — by 17.3%. Also, good growth is noted in the production of chemical products at the level of 9.8%.
The growth of investments in fixed assets, excluding the mining industry, amounted to 25.5%.
A significant increase in investments is noted in construction by 2.3 times, manufacturing — by 82%, incl. in food production — by 24%, information and communications — by 53%, agriculture — by 47%, trade — by 46%, real estate transactions — by 29% and transport — by 19%.
In January-April of this year foreign trade turnover amounted to $28.1 billion, incl. exports — $16.7 billion. At the same time, the export of processed goods increased by 16.2% to $5.4 billion.
Imports of goods amounted to $11.4 billion.
Thus, a positive trade balance of $5.3 billion was ensured.
“The manufacturing industry continues to determine trends in the dynamics of industrial production. The growth was 7.2%. 14 regions showed positive growth. The greatest increase is noted in the cities of Nur-Sultan and Almaty, Almaty region,” Irgaliyev noted.
According to the head of the Ministry of National Economy, high investment activity is observed in many regions. The best indicators are observed in the Turkestan and Pavlodar regions, as well as in the cities of Almaty and Nur-Sultan.
There are positive trends in the construction industry.
Thus, the volume of completed construction work increased by 11.3%.
All regions showed positive growth, with the exception of the West Kazakhstan region.
A high growth in construction and installation work is noted in the Turkistan, Kyzylorda and Kostanay regions, as well as in Almaty.
Housing construction is underway. According to the results of January-May of this year commissioned 4.6 million sq. m of housing. This is 12.5% higher than in the same period last year.
Against this background, all regions showed positive growth. The greatest increase is noted in Shymkent, Atyrau and Pavlodar regions.
The volume of agriculture continues to grow. The growth was 3.1%.
Positive dynamics is observed in 13 regions. The greatest growth was shown by Akmola region.
The general situation in the regional context for 7 economic indicators is as follows:
In general, the situation in the areas of trade and transport is improving. In trade, there is an increase in almost all regions, with the exception of Kostanay and West Kazakhstan regions.
In terms of transport, only 3 regions are still in the positive zone. These are the Atyrau and Mangystau regions, as well as the city of Shymkent.
Central and local executive bodies are invited to focus on the following measures:
The implementation of the above measures will allow maintaining macroeconomic stability.
According to the Chair of the National Bank Erbolat Dossaev, the ongoing vaccination in the world, combined with significant fiscal stimulus in developed countries, support the rise in global economic activity in January-May of this year.
“Against the background of improving the epidemiological situation in the world, restrictions are gradually being eased in many countries. As a result, the global index of economic activity (Global Composite PMI) in May of this year. reached a 15-year high of 58.4 points,” he added.
In Kazakhstan, the PMI continues to recover against the backdrop of easing restrictions and improving the epidemiological situation. In May of this year. IDA amounted to 51.1 points, having increased by 0.6 points from 50.5 in April of this year. thanks to accelerated growth in the services sector from 50.7 to 52.3.
After some stabilization at the beginning of this year, in May there is an acceleration of inflationary processes to 7.2% in annual terms. A significant increase in prices for non-food products and paid services was offset by the disinflation of the food component.
Food inflation slowed down from 9.8% to 9.3% amid a slowdown in the growth of prices for bakery products, meat, fruits and vegetables. Despite the disinflationary processes, the upward trend in prices (sunflower oil, sugar, lamb) persists in some commodity markets.
Non-food inflation accelerated from 6.4% to 6.7% due to the accelerated growth in prices for clothing and footwear to 5.9% (April of this year — 5.5%), gasoline — to 12.7% ( 10%).
Inflation for paid services accelerated from 4.1% to 5.1% amid higher electricity tariffs and higher prices for selected services due to increased demand amid easing quarantine measures.
“Taking into account the significant jump in the prices of fuels and lubricants, the rise in electricity prices, stronger fiscal stimulus and heightened inflationary expectations, inflation by the end of 2021, according to our latest forecasts, may form above the target range by 0.4-0.5 p.p." noted Dossaev.
At the same time, the exhaustion of the effects of internal pro-inflationary factors and a weakening of external inflationary pressure is expected in 2022. As a result, inflation will enter the established corridor of 4-6%.
Taking into account the above, on June 7, 2021, the National Bank decided to keep the base rate at 9%. In case of realization of risks from the side of pro-inflationary factors and slower dynamics of disinflation in comparison with the forecast estimates, the National Bank will take a decision to tighten monetary conditions.
For May of this year the tenge appreciated by 0.1% to 428.71 tenge per US dollar amid moderate growth in oil prices and a period of tax payments.
Against the background of an improvement in the geopolitical situation and an increase in the real rate of return on OFZs following the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, the Russian ruble strengthened by 2.4% to 73.4 rubles. per US dollar.
Also in May 2021, the inflow of foreign investments into government securities has resumed, incl. in the notes of the National Bank, which increased by 99 billion tenge over the month.
Despite local positive factors, changes in monetary conditions in developed countries continue to affect the dynamics of emerging market currencies, incl. tenge.
As of June 9, 2021, exchange rate of tenge was formed at the level of 426.75 tenge per US dollar.
The Ministry of Finance continues to actively place itself on the domestic market. So, in 2021, it is planned to issue government securities in the amount of about 1.9 trillion tenge with maturities from 1 to 15 years, incl. in the short sector up to 5 years — up to 1 trillion tenge.
Since the beginning of this year. The Ministry of Finance placed government securities in the amount of 973.9 billion tenge at par, for which demand exceeded supply by 1.5 times, and the market share was 92.9% against 32.7% in 2020.
The head of the National Bank noted a significant increase in the share of non-resident investments in government securities, which increased from 1 billion tenge at the beginning of 2020 to 288 billion tenge at the end of May 2021.
The volume of portfolio investments of non-residents in government securities and notes of the National Bank in May reached 801 billion tenge or $1.87 billion, which led to a 44 bp decrease in the borrowing rate on government securities to 3 years.
Thus, the growing participation of local investors and the influx of non-residents against the background of attractive government securities rates contribute to the construction of an effective yield curve, signaling the attractiveness of tenge assets.
Assets of the National Fund at the end of May this year amounted to $58.5 billion, having increased by $827 million over the month.
To ensure the allocation of targeted and guaranteed transfers for 251 billion tenge, $553 million was sold (since the beginning of the year, transfers for 1,662 billion tenge were allocated from the National Fund).
Receipts to the National Fund amounted to 450 billion tenge, incl. in foreign currency $720 million or 308 billion tenge in equivalent (in total, 844 billion tenge has been received since the beginning of the year).
Investment income of the National Fund for May of this year amounted to $661 million or 1.15%.
Since the beginning of this year, the investment income of the National Fund amounted to $1.64 billion or 2.84%, mainly due to the continued growth in the stock market, as well as the recovery in the bond market and the rise in the price of gold in April-May of this year.
Gold and foreign exchange reserves at the end of May of this year amounted to $36.45 billion, having increased by $2.23 billion over the month.
The growth of the gold portfolio amounted to $1.92 billion against the background of the price recovery by 7% from $1,769 to $1,892 per ounce. In June this year, the gold price has stabilized.
Assets in freely convertible currency for May of this year increased by $ 311 million, incl. due to the growth of funds on deposits and accounts with the National Bank by $297 million.
Thus, gross international reserves in May of this year. for the first time since 2016 amounted to $95 billion, having increased by $3.1 billion over the month.
Pension assets of the UAPF since the beginning of this year decreased by 0.2 trillion tenge or 1.4% to 12.7 trillion tenge in May due to early withdrawal of funds by the population. The volume of pension contributions made by contributors amounted to 514.9 billion tenge, pension payments — 113.7 billion tenge.
The amount of accrued investment income from the beginning of this year amounted to 671.8 billion tenge. Following the results of 5 months of this year. a return of 5.3% was obtained with inflation of 3.5% (over the past 12 months, the return on pension assets was 11.7% with an inflation rate of 7.2%).
As of May 31 of this year the number of executed applications of contributors for early withdrawal of pension savings amounted to 308.5 thousand in the amount of 1.4 trillion tenge (as of June 9 of this year - 1,452.6 billion tenge). At the same time, there is a decrease in the volume of monthly withdrawals to 179.0 billion tenge in May of this year.
99.2% of the withdrawn savings are allocated to solve housing issues. In the context of regions, the share of the Mangystau region, the cities of Almaty and Nur-Sultan accounts for 57.3% of the total volume of seizures.
Also, according to Dossaev, deposits in the banking system since the beginning of the year have increased by 8.5% to 24.0 trillion tenge, incl. in national currency — by 9.0% or 1.2 trillion tenge to 15.1 trillion tenge, mainly due to retail deposits, in foreign currency — by 7.8% or 638.7 billion tenge to 8.9 trillion tenge in mainly through business.
As a result, the level of dollarization of deposits was 37.0% in April 2021.
"Deposits of legal entities in January-April 2021 increased by 8.6% to 12.3 trillion tenge, individuals — by 8.4% to 11.7 trillion tenge," said the Chair of the National Bank of Kazakhstan.
Loan portfolio as of May 1 of this year amounted to 15.1 trillion tenge, having increased since the beginning of this year by 3.3% or 479.0 billion tenge. The annual growth of loans is resumed against the background of recovery in business activity and household incomes, amounting to 7.5%.
Since the beginning of this year, the loan portfolio of the population increased by 5.6% or 423.7 billion tenge to 7.9 trillion tenge, incl. consumer loans — by 6.1% or 267.0 billion tenge, mortgage loans — by 3.4% or 80.3 billion tenge.
Loans to businesses for January-April of this year increased by 0.8% or 55.3 billion tenge amid growing demand for large businesses.
The cost of credit resources to businesses fell to 11.6% in April 2021 compared with 12.1% in April last year (for short-term loans — 11.2% (12.0%), long-term loans — 13.3% (13.3%)).
To support the economy, the implementation of the anti-crisis initiatives of the Head of State continues:
As the head of the Ministry of Finance Yerulan Zhamaubayev said, the indicators of the execution of public finances following the results of five months of this year developed as follows.
“The republican budget received revenues (excluding transfers) in the amount of 2.7 trillion tenge, or the plan was fulfilled by 101.6%. The income plan was exceeded by 42 billion tenge, of which taxes — by 2 billion tenge, on non-tax revenues — by 39 billion tenge. Overfulfillment of taxes was provided mainly due to VAT on imports, ETP for oil and CIT,” noted Zhamaubayev.
Overfulfillment of the plan for VAT on imports is associated with:
- an increase in imports with third countries for 4 months of this year. compared to the same period last year by 8.1% or $488 million;
- an increase in the volume of imports from the EAEU member states for the 1st quarter of 2021 by 11.8%.
The overfulfillment of the ECD for crude oil is due to an increase in the ECD rate.
The gradual revival of economic activity in the world was reflected in the increase in prices for major export goods by an average of 33.3%.
This led to an increase in the amounts of declared advance payments by 20.4% or 101.5 billion tenge.
As a result, the CIT plan was overfulfilled.
At the same time, the plan was not fulfilled for VAT on TVP due to the increase in the current year, VAT refund by more than 1.4 times or by 130 billion tenge.
The overfulfillment of the plan for non-tax revenues was mainly ensured by other non-tax revenues and fines, penalties, sanctions and penalties imposed by government agencies.
Local budget revenues (excluding transfers) were executed by 128.5% and amounted to 1 trillion 658 billion tenge.
The plan was exceeded by 367 billion tenge, of which taxes — by 320 billion tenge.
In all regions, income targets have been exceeded.
State budget expenditures were executed by 98.8%, republican — by 99.2%, local budgets — by 98.8%.
Compared to the same period last year, the percentage of execution at all levels of budgets is higher.
Regarding the republican budget, expenditures were made in the amount of 5.9 trillion tenge.
Non-fulfillment amounted to 49 billion tenge, of which 11 billion tenge are savings.
Not utilized — 38 billion tenge.
The largest amounts of undeveloped funds were found in the ministries of health, agriculture, internal affairs, finance, digital development, innovation and the aerospace industry.
The main reasons for failure to utilize the funds:
Local budget expenditures amounted to 2.8 trillion tenge.
Not executed — 34 billion tenge.
This year regions are provided with targeted transfers in the amount of 1.9 trillion tenge. As of June 1, they were allocated 646 billion tenge. Of these, 97.5% have been mastered. Not executed — 16 billion tenge, incl. savings — 2 billion tenge, not utilized — 14 billion tenge.
The greatest underdevelopment has developed in the cities of Almaty, Nur-Sultan, Shymkent and West Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan regions.
“For 5 months of this year, office control covered 448.5 thousand public procurement procedures for 3.9 trillion tenge,” the minister informed.
Based on the results of the inspections, violations were found in almost 13 thousand procedures.
The objects of the state audit executed 12.5 thousand (96%) notifications on the elimination of violations.
1,416 audit events were carried out.
The audit covered 840 billion tenge of budgetary funds.
Financial violations in the amount of 87 billion tenge were established.
Violations for 68 billion tenge were eliminated by restoring the supply of goods, providing services and performing work, reimbursing to the budget and reflecting on accounting.
To improve and increase the efficiency of the audit objects, 1,227 recommendations were given.
Comprehensive Privatization Plan for 2021-2025 implementation of 673 objects is provided (without 60 objects provided for implementation within the perimeter of the parent companies).
During the reporting period, 27 objects were sold and transferred to trust management with the right of subsequent redemption in the amount of 16.7 billion tenge.
These are the results of the execution of public finances for the reporting period.
Minister of Trade and Integration Bakhyt Sultanov informed that since the beginning of the year, prices for socially important food products have grown by 6.3%, of which 5.3 percentage points or 84% of the total growth accounted for 6 commodity items. These are vegetables, for which prices rise in the off-season, as well as import-dependent products (sugar, buckwheat) and goods with high export demand (sunflower oil).
In annual terms, the growth in prices amounted to 11.8%. Following the results of 5 months of this year. the highest growth in prices for socially significant food products was recorded in the Turkistan region — 9.4%, Nur-Sultan — 8.5% and Almaty — 6%.
The smallest increase in prices is observed in the West Kazakhstan region — 5.7%, Akmola region — 5.6%, and Karaganda region — 5.2%.
The rise in food prices is also seen around the world. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in May this year. prices rose 39.7% over the same period last year.
“This is a record value over the past 10 years. A similar upward trend in prices is also observed in our neighboring countries. So, in comparison with Russia, the rise in prices in our country is less for most goods. Unfortunately, the global market has affected us as well. But, at the same time, we observe additional problems that lead to an imbalance of supply and demand in the domestic market,” Sultanov said.
For example, for potatoes, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, domestic production provides more than 108% of domestic consumption.
At the same time, the volume of commercial potato production is only 2 million tons, or 47% of the gross harvest. The rest of the volume is practically not involved in the turnover of goods, since it is produced in personal subsidiary plots of the population.
“Last year, exports reached a record value of 360 thousand tons. Thus, the share of potato exports is 19% of the volume of its commercial production, which leads to a shortage on the shelves of our stores. Accordingly, the shortage leads to the need to import potatoes in the off-season. However, by introducing a ban on the export of potatoes last year, we managed to stabilize prices,” Sultanov noted.
Also, high exports in this year. at a low price led to a 3-fold reduction in stocks of domestic products since the beginning of the year. To compensate for the resulting imbalance, over the same period, 28 thousand tons of expensive imported potatoes were purchased from Iran and Pakistan, at a price three times more expensive than domestic potatoes.
In general, over 4 months, the import of potatoes has grown 67 times compared to the same period last year, and the import price since the beginning of the year has increased by 47%.
“At the same time, the akimats could not keep their potatoes on the domestic market to provide for the population, although they have all the necessary levers. In particular, there were no “counter obligations” to the producers in the case of subsidies. In the regional stabilization funds, potatoes were not purchased in sufficient volume, and such market mechanisms as forward purchases and the turnaround scheme were not fully used. At the moment, there are practically no potato reserves in the stabilization funds of the regions,” explained Sultanov.
According to the head of the department, the situation with carrots is even more difficult. At the moment, stocks of domestic products have decreased by 5.3 times compared to the beginning of the year. At the same time, every year in Kazakhstan there is a shortage of carrot production in 5-6% of the demand.
“The main deficit falls on the period from April to July, which we have to cover by expensive imports from Uzbekistan. At the same time, in Uzbekistan itself, the price of carrots has increased by more than 55% since the beginning of the year. Regions have not formed sufficient stocks for carrots either — only 258 tons are stored in the stabilization funds,” the minister noted.
Forward purchase of carrots at the moment across the country is 5.7 thousand tons, of which 73% falls on the city of Almaty alone.
Currently, government agencies are working to implement the Roadmap measures to stabilize prices.
The Ministry of Agriculture needs to develop a forecast of the balance of production, imports, exports, available stocks and consumption of food products with their monthly updating, which will allow conducting a timely analysis of factors influencing price increases, as well as accelerating the implementation of specific counter-obligations of agricultural producers aimed at stabilizing prices for social significant food items when receiving subsidies.
Akimats, in turn, need to bring the financing of the forward purchase up to 10 billion tenge and the turnaround scheme to 50 billion tenge, take strict control over the fulfillment of obligations of the subjects of trade, provided for in the memorandums on price stabilization.
It is worth noting that the eprice.gov.kz platform has been developed for the collection and analytical processing of data sets on socially important food products from various sources, including market and departmental data. Its purpose is to identify factors and form trends in commodity movement and pricing of goods along the entire chain. The site has already been created. The uploading of data from the Bureau of National Statistics, the State Revenue Committee and other sources has begun.
Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development Beibut Atamkulov said that following the results of 5 months of this year, in all sectors of the manufacturing industry there is a positive trend with a cumulative rate of 107.2%.
The mechanical engineering industry is showing steady growth at 121.1%, driven by the production of vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, machinery and equipment, the production of other vehicles, computers, electronic and optical equipment, electrical equipment, repair and installation.
The positive dynamics is observed in non-ferrous metallurgy. The growth was 1.6%. The volumes of refined gold, refined silver, gold bullion, cathode copper and copper rod were increased. In ferrous metallurgy, the IFO amounted to 104.6%. Increase in the production of pig iron, carbon steel and ferrosilicomanganese.
In the pharmaceutical industry, production increased by 25.7%.
“Basically, the growth was due to an increase in demand among the population for medicines and medical products. In light industry, growth was 5.5% due to an increase in the production of clothing and leather products. Increased demand for disinfectants and mineral fertilizers spurred the production of the chemical industry. The growth was 9.8%. The production of building materials amounted to 121.4% due to an increase in the production of heat-insulating materials, Portland cement, gypsum, bricks and mortars,” Atamkulov informed.
It is worth noting that the transport industry has not yet recovered from the coronavirus pandemic. During the reporting period, the IFO amounted to 93.1%. The positive dynamics remains in transit container transportation in the amount of 435 thousand TEU (twenty-foot equivalent), an increase of 48%. The volume of cargo transportation by all modes of transport amounted to 1.37 billion tons or 96.9% of the same period of the previous year.
The volume index for construction for the first five months of 2021 amounted to 111.3%. Positive dynamics is observed in 16 regions, with the exception of the West Kazakhstan region.
Housing construction for January-May of this year commissioned 4 586 thousand sq. meters of housing, which is 112.5% over the same period in 2020.
“To date, over 39,245 dwellings have been commissioned throughout the republic. An increase in the volume of housing commissioning in comparison with last year is noted in all regions,” added Atamkulov.
Energy Minister Nurlan Nogayev said that the volume of oil and condensate production for the specified period amounted to 35.5 million tons, 99.3% of the plan for January-May of this year.
The reason for the decrease in oil and condensate production by the plan of the reporting period was unscheduled repair work at the Karachaganak field, which took place in May of this year, in particular, during the period of May 1-3 and May 28, technical work was carried out on the gas re-injection compressor.
In particular, the indicators for large companies in the oil and gas industry are as follows: in Tengiz, 11.4 million tons of oil were produced during the specified period, the plan is 100%. North Caspian project — the volume of oil production at Kashagan amounted to 6.2 million tons, that is, the plan for January-May has been fulfilled by 100%.
The indicator of the Karachaganak project is 5 million tons, compared to the plan for five months of this year, that’s 97%. During the reporting period, 28 million tons of oil were exported, the plan was 100% fulfilled.
During the reporting period, gas was produced in the amount of 22.8 billion cubic meters, which amounted to 99.1% of the plan for five months of this year. The indicated indicator is lower due to the fact that during oil production, gas is associated gas, i.e. the decline in oil production affected gas production.
In turn, the volume of domestic consumption of commercial gas amounted to 8.9 billion cubic meters, this figure was fulfilled by 112.5%. The volume of production of liquefied petroleum gas amounted to 1.3 million tons, which is 104%. The volume of exported gas amounted to 3.6 billion cubic meters, reaching 100.1%.
According to the results of January-May of this year, more than 5 million tons of petroleum products were produced, this figure is 109.6%, including: the indicator for motor gasoline amounted to 1.9 million tons (this figure is 104.3%), the volume of diesel fuel production amounted to 1.9 million tons ( this figure is 104.8%). The indicator for aviation fuel amounted to 205 thousand tons (this figure is 116%).
As for the production of fuel oil, its figure is 1.1 million tons, this figure was 130.8%.
At the same time, during the reporting period, bitumen production reached 311 thousand tons, that is, this figure is 104%. In general, the volume of petrochemical products amounted to 61.2 thousand tons, i.e. 37.7%.
“It should be noted that from the beginning of May to the beginning of June of this year. The Shymkent oil refinery was under planned repairs and due to the fact that the Pavlodar petrochemical plant plans to stop for scheduled repairs in July-August of this year, in order to provide the domestic market with oil products, the Atyrau oil plant will operate in fuel mode by the end of the year,” said Nogayev.
In this regard, the production of benzene and paraxylene will be temporarily suspended at the Atyrau Refinery until the end of the year. During the reporting period, 48.8 billion kWh of electricity were generated, 107% over the same period in 2020.
Agriculture Minister Saparkhan Omarov informed that in January-May of this year. the volume of gross agricultural production increased by 3.1% and amounted to 1 110.2 billion tenge.
This growth was mainly due to an increase in livestock production by 3.2%. Thus, there was a high growth in the production of meat in live weight by 5.5%, milk — by 3.1%.
At the same time, crop production was produced for 58.3 billion tenge, IFO at the level of 100%. This volume is provided by growing crops in greenhouses.
In the context of regions, rates higher than republican ones were noted in 4 regions: Akmola — 113.8%, Pavlodar — 103.9%, West Kazakhstan and Karaganda — 103.3%.
Food production for the specified period increased by 3.3% and amounted to 851.6 billion tenge.
At the same time, there is an increase in the production of beet sugar by 29.7%, processed rice — by 24%, cereals — by 18.7%, butter — by 16.5%, vegetable oil — by 11.9%, flour — by 9%, cheese and cottage cheese — by 8.7%, processed milk — by 3.3%.
For January-May of this year the volume of investments in fixed assets in agriculture increased by 46.8% and amounted to 213.8 billion tenge, food production — by 24.1% and amounted to 35.6 billion tenge.
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